Dancing to old ghosts: The worrying case of Africa Rising

Africa is a continent on the rise. The world's second largest and second most populous continent, massive tourism potential, unrivaled mineral and energy resources, burgeoning infrastructural developments, rising literary levels, increased foreign direct investment and intra-African trade championed by various regional economic blocs strewn across the continent and with an economy widely expected to pick up again after a tumultuous post-2008 global economic meltdown to post a modest 4.5%  growth, Africa is well and truly on the move and on the cusp of an unprecedented economic boom. What's more? Africa boasts four of the top ten fastest growing economies in the world!

Rightly, the narrative of "Africa Rising" has been a welcome distraction from the decades-long periods of economic stagnation and extreme poverty and it also serves as sweet soothing music to the ears of many and has understandably elicited much hope, excitement and renewed optimism across the continent, as well as garnering much interest globally.

In spite of all these impressive recent developments, Africa still is the world's poorest and most underdeveloped continent. Out of the 23 poorest countries in the world 19 are located in Africa, according to an analysis by the Global Finance Magazine, the future still very much hanging on the balance. 

Worryingly, the continent's economic growth seems to be showing signs of slowing down over the past four years, forcing the World Bank to revise its growth forecasts for the continent down to 4.2% this year, a stark contrast to the annual average of 6.4% between 2002 and 2008.

The continent's biggest economies and currencies have suffered a blow. Nigeria's economy, the continent's largest, expanded 2.5% in the second quarter of the year compared to 3.9% a year earlier, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics. Over the past year, the naira has lost 20% of its value against the US dollar.

South Africa, the continent's second largest economy, contracted declining 1.3% compared to the previous quarter, raising fears that a recession might be on the cards, while in Kenya -East Africa's number one economy- the Nairobi Stock Exchange has lost about $1.5 billion in value since the beginning of 2015; Kenya’s shilling losing 8.8% in value between May to July 2015 alone.

These happenings not only threaten to bring the celebratory juggernaut to a swift conclusion even before it hits crescendo, they represent a culmination of a institutionalized weaknesses and threats that, if left unchecked, may render the renewed optimism another false dawn much like the lost decades of the immediate post-independent Africa.

Essentially, Africa's problems are deeply steeped in history not limited to the exploitative and atrocious nature of the colonial governments' relics that have survived the ages but also the failure of the successive governments and their reluctance and inability to engineer a path that lead to the obliteration of the ghosts that have continually haunted the continent.

A case has always been, and continues to be, made about African economies' relative slow growth as compared to some of their Asian counterparts who, a few decades ago, were not much better off or were even worse off. That the said Asian economies have grown in leaps and bounds while the African contingent has grown in fits and starts is a sad state of affairs that renowned economists, scholars, policy  analysts and authors have been at pains to explain.

According to the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2014 only two African states, Seychelles and Botswana, sneak into the top 50 least corrupt countries worldwide; both enjoying the virtuous acclaim of being Africa's model developmental states.

Five decades after independence, corruption - a monstrous killer of growth- still remains imperiously prevalent right across the continent. From state officials to politicians to the civil service to the civil society, and from religious institutions to the grassroots, corruption permeates almost every crevice of African states greatly hampering their prospects for growth and threatening to mutilate their social fabric. 

Talking bluntly in 2009, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Southern Africa Representative Jonathan Lucas labeled corruption as “a crime against development, democracy, education, prosperity, public health and justice - what many would consider the pillars of social well being."

The grabbing hand of the state, and of the populace, is a characteristic feature of most African countries. Embezzlement of funds, kickbacks, fraudulent licensing, generalized extortion  and embarrassingly high levels of rent seeking, theft and bribery are towering hallmarks of corrupt systems of governance and way of life that are more intent on selfish private gain than in wholesale economic thrift. To put this in context,Africa has lost between $1.2 trillion  and $1.4 trillion between 1980 and 2009 to illicit financial flows (alone) from the continent, greatly eclipsing the total amount the continent has received in official development aid over the same duration of time.

In similar fashion, conflicts, civil wars and strife continue to blight and remain an embarrassing blot that threatens to beat back the colossal economic strides that the continent's states have made on the path towards sustainability and prosperity, with 24 African states (almost half the number of African states) making it to the bottom 50 of the least peaceful countries according to the Global Peace Index 2015.

The devastation occasioned by these unfortunate travesties is multifaceted; the migrant crisis that has rocked the Mediterranean, as thousands attempt to flee their war-ravaged poverty-stricken countries, being one. In less than eight months, close to a quarter million migrants, many from Africa, have arrived in Europe by sea while thousands others have lost their lives in the perilous journeys.

Also occasioned and accompanied by these protracted conflicts is the loss of Africa's natural resources,most notably minerals, which have had a debilitating effect on the continent's ability to chart a growth path over the ages. In what has been referred to as a "resource curse" , Africa's abundant natural resources have the pestilent reputation of fueling conflicts across the continent. 

The DRC is emblematic of the economic toll and humanitarian crises that mineral conflicts afflict on a country's national institutions, economy and social cohesion. The all too murky succession of mineral conflicts fueled and exacerbated by armies, rebel groups and outside influence has brought a once prosperous nation to its knees with very little to suggest that the end is in sight. It is an all too familiar scene. Millions worth of minerals and property, hundreds of thousands of lives and the little infrastructural caricatures that once dotted the Central African nation seem to have been swept to the bowels of history. Currently one of the fastest growing economies in the world, DRC continues to show signs of recovery even though this does not take away from the fact that the country still remains volatile and deeply mired in poverty, squalor and misery.

The third wave of democratization that began in the 1990s offered much hope for the expansion of the democratic space and for peaceful electioneering after a period of gross human rights violations, civil wars, genocides and crimes against humanity. Today, elections in Africa are increasingly democratic and peaceful and peaceful democratic transitions such as witnessed in Nigeria are a sight to behold -and a welcome break from decades-long violent transitions- especially in the face of worldwide skepticism and scrutiny.

The Arab Spring that floored long-standing oppressive and authoritarian regimes such as Muammar Gaddafi's, Hosni Mubarak's and Zine Abedine Ben Ali's, and that seem to have inspired the ouster of Burkina Faso's Blaise Compaore, also offer encouraging signs for popular participation and assertiveness for participatory governance despite the reappearance of post-revolutionary military coups intent on filling the power vacuums left by deposed despots.

However, the rise of illiberal democracies should represent a worrying trend for anyone interested in the development of the continent. In a new world order in which development is viewed through prisms that include but are not limited to the protection of human rights and civil liberties, the rise of democratically elected governments that pay limp attention to the protection and promotion of the same and to constitutionalism, rule of law and the principle of separation of powers presents a sophisticated challenge which the ability or inability to comprehensively deal with might tip the scale in favor of or away from growth and prosperity. 

 Weak healthcare systems that suffer from gross under-funding are proving to be an Achilles heel. In fact, improvements in health systems are the highest priority for Africans, according to analysis from the PEW Research Center. Despite encouraging efforts, the fight against HIV/Aids looks far from over; robbing the continent of much needed human, social, natural and financial capital that would otherwise go a long way in strengthening economies by stimulating growth through improved living standards, 

The effects of the West African Ebola crisis should act as a timely reminder that a lot still needs to be done to gird the healthcare systems in Africa countries by strengthening their structural, institutional and expert bases not only to arrest the relatively high infant and child mortality rates and maternal deaths but also to be able to cope with further outbreaks and emergencies.

In the same vein, the primacy of education in growth as a catalyst for economic growth, job creation and increased social mobility needs to be restated and reviewed , and the importance of STEM fields be emphasized as areas that need robust government and private funding and positive intervention.

The brightest glimmer of hope, of course, is that these are not entirely new challenges to the continent's governments and citizens. How swiftly and decisively they are dealt with, however, will go a long way in determining how fast Africa Rising becomes a success rather than another false dawn.

DISCLAIMER

The writer is well and truly cognizant of the vastness and great existent disparities in culture, governance structures and political economies and economic performances and other metrics that define and determine the same in the various African countries and as such, is cognizant of the need not to make wide sweeping generalizations about and lampooning of the economic situation of the countries. Therefore, the views expressed here are a reflection of some of the most prevalent norms and happenings across many countries in the continent.