To withdraw or not to withdraw: Kenya’s biggest dilemma

In the wake of the recent deadly terrorist attack at the Garissa University college that left in its trail 148 innocent students dead and scores nursing physical and psychological wounds, there have been renewed calls for the Kenyan government to withdraw its forces from Somalia and to bring the curtain down on Operation Linda Nchi.

This agitation has come as a response to the relentless andruthless murders of innocent Kenyans in Kenya by the Somalia-based terrorist group al-Shabaab that the Kenyan forces had gone into Somalia to pursue. Most people have questioned the rationale behind having Kenyan forces stationed in Somalia in the face of increased deadly terrorist attacks by the said terrorist group back at home.

The Kenyan forces stationed in Somalia also stand accused of gross human rights violations and involvement in a booming charcoal trade in the country.

With the number of casualties from such attacks standing at a staggering 500 or thereabouts, this couldn’t be a better time for those who were opposed to the operation from the very beginning to renew their calls for the immediate withdrawal of Kenyan forces involved in the exercise. Even the public that was once supportive of the very decision to send Kenyan forces to Somalia to pursue the murderous terrorist group have joined in the chorus to have the said forces withdrawn.

The compelling reasons behind Operation Linda Nchi

Lest it be lost on us, Operation Linda Nchi was prompted by the audacious abductions and killings of foreign tourists and aid workers as well as Kenyans by al-Shabaab. The incursion therefore signaled the beginning of Kenya’s active involvement in the global war on terror and a response to the breach of Kenya’s territorial integrity by the barbaric terrorist group.

So should Kenya withdraw its forces from Somalia?

Despite continued attacks in Kenya and despite initial skepticism, the operation in Somalia has majorly been a success for the allied forces fighting extremism and violent insurgency in the Horn of Africa country since the fall from grace of Siad Barre in 1991.

So far al-Shabaab has lost erstwhile foreign-trained leaders such as Ahmed Abdi Godane, Ibrahim al-Afghani and Abu Mansoor al-Amriki. The group has also lost large swathes of territory that once were under its tight control ever since the decline and the subsequent disintegration of the IslamicCourts Union from which it took over.

Key towns such as Beledweyne, Afmadow, Kismayo, and Mogadishu that acted as the terror group’s economic lifeline have since changed hands. Similarly, any semblances of political institutions that it established at the heights of its power have since crumbled.

As security experts have pointed out, al-Shabaab is definitely at its weakest now than ever. So much so that it has resorted to shifting bases to avoid continued aerial bombardment by AMISOM and American dronestrikes, and to secure their survival. What remains of the terror group is a pale shadow of its former self; one bereft of any strong economic base and any sense of social and political influence to speak of.

The operation in Somalia has therefore been a massive success bar the attacks back home.

With the job almost done and with the target firmly in our sights, a withdrawal from Somalia is as unthinkable as it would be reckless and cowardly. The dice was cast when Kenyan Defense Forces set foot in Somalia and anything short of a total victory over the terror group would be nothing to show for the efforts and resources Kenya put into and the lives of soldiers lost in the operation.

Only the total obliteration of al-Shabaab would spell the end of the daring attacks the group has carried out in the region, and it is only now that KDF under AMISOM has ever been closer to achieving that objective.

Learning from Iraq

Worse than that, a withdrawal would grant the terror group sufficient time and space to regroup and to launch further assaults in the region. Only that this time, as the world has learnt from the premature withdrawal of US Forces from Iraq, a more powerful and more brutal resurgent group will re-emerge to take center-stage

The point that those advocating for an immediate withdrawal and citing the US withdrawal from Iraq are missing is the fact that the power vacuum that was felt under an unstable Iraqi government under the leadership of Nouri al-Maliki provided the perfect breeding ground for the most brutal blood-thirsty terror group ever; the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levante (ISIL/ISIS/IS)

That the same could happen under an unstable Transitional Federal Government of Somalia is as real as it is scary. This is perhaps compounded by the fact that, as we have learnt in the Middle East, terrorist groups do not die easy deaths and could it does take a long period of time to stamp out their existence and any chances of their resurgence.

Just like ISIS reign of terror in which suicide bombings, public executions, chopping off of hands, public floggings, abductions, slavery and forced marriages are common-place, the same scene could be replayed in Somalia if al-Shabaab is not completely rooted out and is allowed to regroup and to sweep into power. If at all, that used to be the case in Somalia when al-Shabaab grew in prominence and came to power in Southern Somalia.

Again, al-Shabaab will have won the ideological war and would use such a withdrawal to oil its religious/nationalist propaganda machine, and use the same to resuscitate its dying remnants and to mobilize a powerful recruitment drive in the region and from outside Africa just as it once did. The same has been witnessed in the Middle East. We cannot take such a gamble closer home.

As such, bowing down to terrorist demands to withdraw from Somalia would be a huge calamitous mistake by the Kenyan government to all the countries, agencies and forces involved in the war on terror in the Horn of Africa.

Above all, Kenya as a member of the United Nations and as one of the most peaceful and the most powerful regional actors has the moral obligation and the responsibility to protect its citizens and the thousands of Somalis it liberated from the shackles of al-Shabaab.

Leaving the job half-done would be a total disaster and will certainly usher in the dark olden days of al-Shabaab’s reign of terror in Somalia. Only that this time the reign would be more brutal and vicious as the group makes up for lost time, for the losses it suffered under coalition forces and to avenge for the deaths of its leaders such as Ahmed Abdi Godane. Letting al-Shabaab slip back into power is literally unthinkable.

So what now for Kenya...

While those calling for the immediate withdrawal have a legitimate concern that needs to be addressed, it is important to note that most of the attacks the group has carried out in Kenya have been preventable; manageable in the very least.

Had Kenyan security agencies acted on intelligence reports we would have probably never witnessed the Westgate Mall siege and the Garissa University massacre. And had the said security agencies acted in real time the death toll would have been significantly lower in both cases.

Again, if the government could act on the rampant systemic corruption that opens our bodies for breach by illegal immigrants and terrorists and seal all loopholes that ensure that terrorists can easily gain entry into the country, acquire Kenyan national identity cards and SIM cards, go wherever they want and literally roam the country, there would be a significant decline in the number of terror attacks in the country.

Key in this should also be the multi-agency approach in the fight against radicalization and extremism; most importantly addressing the social, political and economic injustices  that makes its Northern and Coastal youth populations susceptible to radicalization.

So, the solution really lies in beefing up homeland security and NOT withdrawing Kenyan Defense Forces from Somalia unless and until the terrorist group is totally wiped out. It is only then that Kenya will be secure.