Dancing to old ghosts: The worrying case of Africa Rising

Africa is a continent on the rise. The world's second largest and second most populous continent, massive tourism potential, unrivaled mineral and energy resources, burgeoning infrastructural developments, rising literary levels, increased foreign direct investment and intra-African trade championed by various regional economic blocs strewn across the continent and with an economy widely expected to pick up again after a tumultuous post-2008 global economic meltdown to post a modest 4.5%  growth, Africa is well and truly on the move and on the cusp of an unprecedented economic boom. What's more? Africa boasts four of the top ten fastest growing economies in the world!

Rightly, the narrative of "Africa Rising" has been a welcome distraction from the decades-long periods of economic stagnation and extreme poverty and it also serves as sweet soothing music to the ears of many and has understandably elicited much hope, excitement and renewed optimism across the continent, as well as garnering much interest globally.

In spite of all these impressive recent developments, Africa still is the world's poorest and most underdeveloped continent. Out of the 23 poorest countries in the world 19 are located in Africa, according to an analysis by the Global Finance Magazine, the future still very much hanging on the balance. 

Worryingly, the continent's economic growth seems to be showing signs of slowing down over the past four years, forcing the World Bank to revise its growth forecasts for the continent down to 4.2% this year, a stark contrast to the annual average of 6.4% between 2002 and 2008.

The continent's biggest economies and currencies have suffered a blow. Nigeria's economy, the continent's largest, expanded 2.5% in the second quarter of the year compared to 3.9% a year earlier, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics. Over the past year, the naira has lost 20% of its value against the US dollar.

South Africa, the continent's second largest economy, contracted declining 1.3% compared to the previous quarter, raising fears that a recession might be on the cards, while in Kenya -East Africa's number one economy- the Nairobi Stock Exchange has lost about $1.5 billion in value since the beginning of 2015; Kenya’s shilling losing 8.8% in value between May to July 2015 alone.

These happenings not only threaten to bring the celebratory juggernaut to a swift conclusion even before it hits crescendo, they represent a culmination of a institutionalized weaknesses and threats that, if left unchecked, may render the renewed optimism another false dawn much like the lost decades of the immediate post-independent Africa.

Essentially, Africa's problems are deeply steeped in history not limited to the exploitative and atrocious nature of the colonial governments' relics that have survived the ages but also the failure of the successive governments and their reluctance and inability to engineer a path that lead to the obliteration of the ghosts that have continually haunted the continent.

A case has always been, and continues to be, made about African economies' relative slow growth as compared to some of their Asian counterparts who, a few decades ago, were not much better off or were even worse off. That the said Asian economies have grown in leaps and bounds while the African contingent has grown in fits and starts is a sad state of affairs that renowned economists, scholars, policy  analysts and authors have been at pains to explain.

According to the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2014 only two African states, Seychelles and Botswana, sneak into the top 50 least corrupt countries worldwide; both enjoying the virtuous acclaim of being Africa's model developmental states.

Five decades after independence, corruption - a monstrous killer of growth- still remains imperiously prevalent right across the continent. From state officials to politicians to the civil service to the civil society, and from religious institutions to the grassroots, corruption permeates almost every crevice of African states greatly hampering their prospects for growth and threatening to mutilate their social fabric. 

Talking bluntly in 2009, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Southern Africa Representative Jonathan Lucas labeled corruption as “a crime against development, democracy, education, prosperity, public health and justice - what many would consider the pillars of social well being."

The grabbing hand of the state, and of the populace, is a characteristic feature of most African countries. Embezzlement of funds, kickbacks, fraudulent licensing, generalized extortion  and embarrassingly high levels of rent seeking, theft and bribery are towering hallmarks of corrupt systems of governance and way of life that are more intent on selfish private gain than in wholesale economic thrift. To put this in context,Africa has lost between $1.2 trillion  and $1.4 trillion between 1980 and 2009 to illicit financial flows (alone) from the continent, greatly eclipsing the total amount the continent has received in official development aid over the same duration of time.

In similar fashion, conflicts, civil wars and strife continue to blight and remain an embarrassing blot that threatens to beat back the colossal economic strides that the continent's states have made on the path towards sustainability and prosperity, with 24 African states (almost half the number of African states) making it to the bottom 50 of the least peaceful countries according to the Global Peace Index 2015.

The devastation occasioned by these unfortunate travesties is multifaceted; the migrant crisis that has rocked the Mediterranean, as thousands attempt to flee their war-ravaged poverty-stricken countries, being one. In less than eight months, close to a quarter million migrants, many from Africa, have arrived in Europe by sea while thousands others have lost their lives in the perilous journeys.

Also occasioned and accompanied by these protracted conflicts is the loss of Africa's natural resources,most notably minerals, which have had a debilitating effect on the continent's ability to chart a growth path over the ages. In what has been referred to as a "resource curse" , Africa's abundant natural resources have the pestilent reputation of fueling conflicts across the continent. 

The DRC is emblematic of the economic toll and humanitarian crises that mineral conflicts afflict on a country's national institutions, economy and social cohesion. The all too murky succession of mineral conflicts fueled and exacerbated by armies, rebel groups and outside influence has brought a once prosperous nation to its knees with very little to suggest that the end is in sight. It is an all too familiar scene. Millions worth of minerals and property, hundreds of thousands of lives and the little infrastructural caricatures that once dotted the Central African nation seem to have been swept to the bowels of history. Currently one of the fastest growing economies in the world, DRC continues to show signs of recovery even though this does not take away from the fact that the country still remains volatile and deeply mired in poverty, squalor and misery.

The third wave of democratization that began in the 1990s offered much hope for the expansion of the democratic space and for peaceful electioneering after a period of gross human rights violations, civil wars, genocides and crimes against humanity. Today, elections in Africa are increasingly democratic and peaceful and peaceful democratic transitions such as witnessed in Nigeria are a sight to behold -and a welcome break from decades-long violent transitions- especially in the face of worldwide skepticism and scrutiny.

The Arab Spring that floored long-standing oppressive and authoritarian regimes such as Muammar Gaddafi's, Hosni Mubarak's and Zine Abedine Ben Ali's, and that seem to have inspired the ouster of Burkina Faso's Blaise Compaore, also offer encouraging signs for popular participation and assertiveness for participatory governance despite the reappearance of post-revolutionary military coups intent on filling the power vacuums left by deposed despots.

However, the rise of illiberal democracies should represent a worrying trend for anyone interested in the development of the continent. In a new world order in which development is viewed through prisms that include but are not limited to the protection of human rights and civil liberties, the rise of democratically elected governments that pay limp attention to the protection and promotion of the same and to constitutionalism, rule of law and the principle of separation of powers presents a sophisticated challenge which the ability or inability to comprehensively deal with might tip the scale in favor of or away from growth and prosperity. 

 Weak healthcare systems that suffer from gross under-funding are proving to be an Achilles heel. In fact, improvements in health systems are the highest priority for Africans, according to analysis from the PEW Research Center. Despite encouraging efforts, the fight against HIV/Aids looks far from over; robbing the continent of much needed human, social, natural and financial capital that would otherwise go a long way in strengthening economies by stimulating growth through improved living standards, 

The effects of the West African Ebola crisis should act as a timely reminder that a lot still needs to be done to gird the healthcare systems in Africa countries by strengthening their structural, institutional and expert bases not only to arrest the relatively high infant and child mortality rates and maternal deaths but also to be able to cope with further outbreaks and emergencies.

In the same vein, the primacy of education in growth as a catalyst for economic growth, job creation and increased social mobility needs to be restated and reviewed , and the importance of STEM fields be emphasized as areas that need robust government and private funding and positive intervention.

The brightest glimmer of hope, of course, is that these are not entirely new challenges to the continent's governments and citizens. How swiftly and decisively they are dealt with, however, will go a long way in determining how fast Africa Rising becomes a success rather than another false dawn.

DISCLAIMER

The writer is well and truly cognizant of the vastness and great existent disparities in culture, governance structures and political economies and economic performances and other metrics that define and determine the same in the various African countries and as such, is cognizant of the need not to make wide sweeping generalizations about and lampooning of the economic situation of the countries. Therefore, the views expressed here are a reflection of some of the most prevalent norms and happenings across many countries in the continent.

On modern-day feminism in Africa: The way forward

The incessant push for gender equality and the phenomenal growth of the feminist movement have been hallmark achievements of early 21st Century human rights agitation. Primed on the tenets of economic, social and political equality for women, the feminist movement has enjoyed profound successes.

These successes have not come easily, and have majorly been a culmination of decades upon decades of active agitation and legislation.

Across the globe, the movement has found relatively varying levels of success despite the fact that it is deeply steeped in history, and has come under sharp criticism from various quarters; not least "meninists", disgruntled feminists and religious bodies for perceived over-zealousness, hypersensitivity and a reactionary approach, and has also been blamed for being directly responsible for the rise of men's right's groups. There are still those who view it skeptically while others have argued that feminists have a "distorted world view and a questionable understanding of history".

Perhaps the biggest weakness of the feminist ideology is that it is a conglomeration of several pro-women pro-choice ideals that are not only difficult to achieve but that has oftentimes drawn the ire of even the very women whose very rights and well-being it agitates for.
Consequently, there are a lot of women who don't buy the ideology and are never shy to state that they don't identify as feminists and are essentially against feminists. It's is for instance no surprise to come across mushrooming social media groups like Women Against Feminism on Facebook.

While feminists have set gender equality as their main target, they have continually driven a wedge between the genders by depicting the female gender as the weaker -at least implicitly - and exploited gender, or simply the "other gender", instead of championing for the depiction of women as equal members of the human race as their male counterparts, and who deserve better for the simple reason that they are humans too.

In as much as this is a well-beaten noble road that has been instrumental in providing impetus to the movement, it may also serve to reinforce sexist and misogynistic stereotypes of what women are and are not, can and cannot do, and can and cannot achieve; instead of serving to reassert the woman's part in society by magnifying her achievements in life and in society in various fields of practice and profession.

There's also need to espouse the woman's immense contributions as a birther and shaper of life and society, and for her supreme innermost strength to endure the grueling  pains of menstrual cycles, nine-month pregnancy terms and child birth and upbringing for  years on end.

These alone are reasons enough to vindicate the woman and to mark her out as an individual more worthy of treatment with dignity and respect.

Achieving this objective requires that a lot be done to inculcate a culture that is respectful of women and that judges individuals not by their gender but by the content of their character.

While much effort has been dedicated towards addressing the plight of the girl child, a lot still needs to be done towards the same end. And not just that, the plight of the boy child also needs to be looked at because in essence, we do not need to be talking about the boy child or the girl child; we need to be talking about the child who not only needs our love, care and support to deal with the challenges of the 21st Century, but who also needs to be nurtured into an all-rounded person respectful of both genders, all religions, races, creeds and cultures.

Most importantly, we need to at the end of the day look into our children's eyes and to feel unquestionably content that we did our very best to equip them with all the necessary skills that will enable them to become useful, resourceful and respectful individuals in society; people who have the capacity and capability to engineer personal and community growth. It's only then when everybody shall be on the upward rise that gender based violence and discrimination will steadily creep into the distant past

As has been evidenced by various theoretical studies and research papers economic prosperity and gender equality walk hand in hand because of the causal relationship between the two.

By: Jagero Wallace

To withdraw or not to withdraw: Kenya’s biggest dilemma

In the wake of the recent deadly terrorist attack at the Garissa University college that left in its trail 148 innocent students dead and scores nursing physical and psychological wounds, there have been renewed calls for the Kenyan government to withdraw its forces from Somalia and to bring the curtain down on Operation Linda Nchi.

This agitation has come as a response to the relentless andruthless murders of innocent Kenyans in Kenya by the Somalia-based terrorist group al-Shabaab that the Kenyan forces had gone into Somalia to pursue. Most people have questioned the rationale behind having Kenyan forces stationed in Somalia in the face of increased deadly terrorist attacks by the said terrorist group back at home.

The Kenyan forces stationed in Somalia also stand accused of gross human rights violations and involvement in a booming charcoal trade in the country.

With the number of casualties from such attacks standing at a staggering 500 or thereabouts, this couldn’t be a better time for those who were opposed to the operation from the very beginning to renew their calls for the immediate withdrawal of Kenyan forces involved in the exercise. Even the public that was once supportive of the very decision to send Kenyan forces to Somalia to pursue the murderous terrorist group have joined in the chorus to have the said forces withdrawn.

The compelling reasons behind Operation Linda Nchi

Lest it be lost on us, Operation Linda Nchi was prompted by the audacious abductions and killings of foreign tourists and aid workers as well as Kenyans by al-Shabaab. The incursion therefore signaled the beginning of Kenya’s active involvement in the global war on terror and a response to the breach of Kenya’s territorial integrity by the barbaric terrorist group.

So should Kenya withdraw its forces from Somalia?

Despite continued attacks in Kenya and despite initial skepticism, the operation in Somalia has majorly been a success for the allied forces fighting extremism and violent insurgency in the Horn of Africa country since the fall from grace of Siad Barre in 1991.

So far al-Shabaab has lost erstwhile foreign-trained leaders such as Ahmed Abdi Godane, Ibrahim al-Afghani and Abu Mansoor al-Amriki. The group has also lost large swathes of territory that once were under its tight control ever since the decline and the subsequent disintegration of the IslamicCourts Union from which it took over.

Key towns such as Beledweyne, Afmadow, Kismayo, and Mogadishu that acted as the terror group’s economic lifeline have since changed hands. Similarly, any semblances of political institutions that it established at the heights of its power have since crumbled.

As security experts have pointed out, al-Shabaab is definitely at its weakest now than ever. So much so that it has resorted to shifting bases to avoid continued aerial bombardment by AMISOM and American dronestrikes, and to secure their survival. What remains of the terror group is a pale shadow of its former self; one bereft of any strong economic base and any sense of social and political influence to speak of.

The operation in Somalia has therefore been a massive success bar the attacks back home.

With the job almost done and with the target firmly in our sights, a withdrawal from Somalia is as unthinkable as it would be reckless and cowardly. The dice was cast when Kenyan Defense Forces set foot in Somalia and anything short of a total victory over the terror group would be nothing to show for the efforts and resources Kenya put into and the lives of soldiers lost in the operation.

Only the total obliteration of al-Shabaab would spell the end of the daring attacks the group has carried out in the region, and it is only now that KDF under AMISOM has ever been closer to achieving that objective.

Learning from Iraq

Worse than that, a withdrawal would grant the terror group sufficient time and space to regroup and to launch further assaults in the region. Only that this time, as the world has learnt from the premature withdrawal of US Forces from Iraq, a more powerful and more brutal resurgent group will re-emerge to take center-stage

The point that those advocating for an immediate withdrawal and citing the US withdrawal from Iraq are missing is the fact that the power vacuum that was felt under an unstable Iraqi government under the leadership of Nouri al-Maliki provided the perfect breeding ground for the most brutal blood-thirsty terror group ever; the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levante (ISIL/ISIS/IS)

That the same could happen under an unstable Transitional Federal Government of Somalia is as real as it is scary. This is perhaps compounded by the fact that, as we have learnt in the Middle East, terrorist groups do not die easy deaths and could it does take a long period of time to stamp out their existence and any chances of their resurgence.

Just like ISIS reign of terror in which suicide bombings, public executions, chopping off of hands, public floggings, abductions, slavery and forced marriages are common-place, the same scene could be replayed in Somalia if al-Shabaab is not completely rooted out and is allowed to regroup and to sweep into power. If at all, that used to be the case in Somalia when al-Shabaab grew in prominence and came to power in Southern Somalia.

Again, al-Shabaab will have won the ideological war and would use such a withdrawal to oil its religious/nationalist propaganda machine, and use the same to resuscitate its dying remnants and to mobilize a powerful recruitment drive in the region and from outside Africa just as it once did. The same has been witnessed in the Middle East. We cannot take such a gamble closer home.

As such, bowing down to terrorist demands to withdraw from Somalia would be a huge calamitous mistake by the Kenyan government to all the countries, agencies and forces involved in the war on terror in the Horn of Africa.

Above all, Kenya as a member of the United Nations and as one of the most peaceful and the most powerful regional actors has the moral obligation and the responsibility to protect its citizens and the thousands of Somalis it liberated from the shackles of al-Shabaab.

Leaving the job half-done would be a total disaster and will certainly usher in the dark olden days of al-Shabaab’s reign of terror in Somalia. Only that this time the reign would be more brutal and vicious as the group makes up for lost time, for the losses it suffered under coalition forces and to avenge for the deaths of its leaders such as Ahmed Abdi Godane. Letting al-Shabaab slip back into power is literally unthinkable.

So what now for Kenya...

While those calling for the immediate withdrawal have a legitimate concern that needs to be addressed, it is important to note that most of the attacks the group has carried out in Kenya have been preventable; manageable in the very least.

Had Kenyan security agencies acted on intelligence reports we would have probably never witnessed the Westgate Mall siege and the Garissa University massacre. And had the said security agencies acted in real time the death toll would have been significantly lower in both cases.

Again, if the government could act on the rampant systemic corruption that opens our bodies for breach by illegal immigrants and terrorists and seal all loopholes that ensure that terrorists can easily gain entry into the country, acquire Kenyan national identity cards and SIM cards, go wherever they want and literally roam the country, there would be a significant decline in the number of terror attacks in the country.

Key in this should also be the multi-agency approach in the fight against radicalization and extremism; most importantly addressing the social, political and economic injustices  that makes its Northern and Coastal youth populations susceptible to radicalization.

So, the solution really lies in beefing up homeland security and NOT withdrawing Kenyan Defense Forces from Somalia unless and until the terrorist group is totally wiped out. It is only then that Kenya will be secure.